Dynamics of Digg

Online social media provide multiple ways to find interesting content. One important method is highlighting content recommended by user's friends. We examine this process on one such site, the news aggregator Digg. With a stochastic model of user behavior, we distinguish the effects of the content visibility and interestingness to users. We find a wide range of interest and distinguish stories primarily of interest to a users' friends from those of interest to the entire user community. We show how this model predicts a story's eventual popularity from users' early reactions to it, and estimate the prediction reliability. This modeling framework can help evaluate alternative design choices for displaying content on the site.

It’s the economy, stupid

"It’s the economy, stupid,” was a useful slogan for the 1992 Bill Clinton campaign. Of course, it wasn’t really true. The Clinton campaign was about much more than the economy. It was about “ending welfare as we know it,” for example, and putting government on the side of those who “work hard and play by the rules”—all of this part of a broader redefinition of the Democratic party away from the failed liberalism of Walter Mondale and Michael Dukakis. And the collapse of the Bush administration in 1992 was also, as it happens, about much more than the economy, which was in fact coming back strong in the fall of that year.

Since then, we’ve seen an epic Republican collapse in 2006. That happened despite pretty good economic growth in the preceding two years. Its cause was some combination of the Bush attempt to institute private Social Security accounts, Hurricane Katrina, Harriet Miers, Tom DeLay, Donald Rumsfeld, immigration, and God knows what else—but not particularly the economy. The repudiation of the Democrats in 2010, for that matter, was fundamentally  about Obamacare, the size and scope of government, and particular Obama policies like the stimulus and cap and trade. It wasn’t primarily a referendum on “the economy, stupid.”

Nonetheless, the slogan has become a talisman, evoked by unimaginative political consultants and reached for by cautious candidates, in pursuit of an easy, safe, cookie-cutter campaign strategy. But it’s not safe. The belief that voters react in a simple-minded way to their current economic well-being leads campaigns and candidates to counterproductively dumb their message down. It’s also condescending, and voters often see it as such.

Greeks Protest: employed and not paid

The number of Greeks who are out of   work has doubled in the past two years, as Greece has suffered its worst debt crisis in recent memory and a crippling recession. But the economy is so bad that even Greeks with jobs haven't been paid for months. It's a widespread problem that's left thousands in a desperate limbo.

One is Dimitris Perakis, the foreign news editor at ALTER Channel, a small private television station in Athens. He's 37 and has worked at the station for 15 years — his entire career in journalism.

Perakis loved his job and often worked 12-hour days. But a year ago, ALTER TV fell behind on paying salaries. The company said advertising revenues were down and the owner could no longer manage the station's massive debt."I feel like this is a second home," Perakis says, "because I've spent most hours of the day here."

So the station just stopped paying. It owes more than $14 million to 650 people.

The company owes Perakis more than $22,000. He's getting by these days with the help of family and a bit of savings.

His 32-year-old colleague Maria Michalogiannaki works in ALTER TV's public relations division. She is owed nearly $12,000.

"I live with my younger brother," she says. "Thank God he has a job, and he's being paid regularly so we can cover whatever there is for our house. There are no parents or husband or anyone that's supporting us."

In November, the ALTER workers finally got fed up waiting for their money. They employed a favorite tactic of Greek labor — they shut down the station and occupied it.

Instead of news and talk shows, the workers are now broadcasting demands for pay and allegations that their boss has defrauded them. The messages scroll against a backdrop of dramatic music.

If ALTER TV laid off these workers, the owner would have to pay millions in compensation. Under Greek law, white-collar workers, for example, with 24 years on the job are entitled to 28 months of severance pay.

These days, few employers can afford that, says Vassilis Masselos, a shop owner who has been pressing the government on business reforms.

"It's not a matter of choice, it's a matter of necessity," Masselos says. "They can't find the money to pay employees. They cannot fire them. So they are locked into a sort of limbo that nobody can get out of."

If he quit, theoretically he could get back pay. But another job? Forget about it. He's sent out 500 resumes.Stelios Karagrigoriou says he feels like a hostage. The 35-year-old still goes to work every day at the information technology company that owes him more than $11,000.

"You can't find a job in Greece," Karagrigoriou says. "I'm looking for a job in London but even though they reply to my CVs, I wasn't lucky so far. But in Greece, nobody answers."

Back at ALTER TV, the workers say no one has answered them either. They're on the night shift at the station and playing cards. The owner has offered to give them a fraction of their salaries, but they've refused. They believe the owner really has the money to pay them in full and could be ordered to do so by a court.

Since they began their strike, people have been dropping off food for them. They store the lentils, beans, pasta, rice, flour and oil in the virtual studio where TV presenters used to read the weather.

Perakis says he's moved by the outpouring, but he looks sad as he walks upstairs to the empty newsroom.

He sits at his old desk as foreign editor, turns on the computer and scrolls through stories about Syria, Egypt and Somalia.

"It helps me forget about all this for a few minutes and pretend that I'm back at work," he says.

Trump: I'm endorsing Mitt Romney

LAS VEGAS, Nev. - Donald Trump said Thursday he's endorsing Mitt Romney because of his position on catching up to China's economic growth and because he believes Romney can out-debate President Obama.

"You look at what's going on with China, you look at what's going on with the other OPEC nations and how they are absolutely destroying this country, and he's the only one who talks about it," Trump told a group of reporters at an impromptu news conference in Las Vegas. "So that was very important to me. I thought he did very well in the debates, that was very important.... I think if he debates that well, I don't think Obama will fare well against him."

Romney's campaign formally unveiled the endorsement at an event in Las Vegas. Trump, who met with all the presidential contenders, said the former Massachusetts governor's campaign courted him "very aggressively."

At the event, Trump told the crowd: "Mitt is tough, he's smart, he's sharp, he's not going to allow bad things to continue to happen to this country that we all love...So Governor Romney, go out and get 'em, you can do it."

Romney, meanwhile, joked, "There are some things that you just can't imagine in your life; this is one of them." He described himself as "Not quite as successful as this guy, but successful nonetheless."

Although multiple news reports on Wednesday night quoted anonymous sources as saying that the flamboyant real-estate tycoon and reality-show star would endorse Newt Gingrich, Trump said he never told anyone that he would back the former House speaker.

"They put that out," Trump told reporters, referring to Gingrich's campaign.

Trump said he intends to actively campaign on Romney's behalf, giving speeches that call attention to fixing the economy.

"I have a lot of people that like what I say," he said. "Look, I don't like seeing our country being ripped off. And that's what's happening. Every nation, no matter who it is, is ripping off this country. And it's gotta stop. So he sees that, and the other candidates see that, and I have a lot of people who agree with me."

Although Romney obviously hopes that Trump's support will help sway undecided voters, Democrats were quick to use the endorsement to make light of Trump's signature line, "You're fired!" and Romney's recent comment that he likes being able to fire people who provide him with subpar service.

"Why would Trump Endorse Romney?" blared the headline of a statement realeased by the Democratic National Committee. "Perhaps because they Both Like Firing People!

In addition, President Obama's spokesman Jay Carney made light of the endorsement at Thursday's White House press briefing.

Asked if the president sought Trump's endorsement, Carney said, "I'm not going to comb over that" - a reference to Trump's celebrated hairstyle. After the laughs that followed, the press secretary added, "There's a danger in speaking off the cuff."

A reporter shot back: "You mean off the top of your head?" Then another added: "Jay, don't just brush this off."

Although Democrats have sought to make an issue of Romney's wealth as evidence that he cannot connect with average Americans, Trump said he thinks that won't be an issue.

"I think he's actually becoming very comfortable recently, more recently very comfortable with it," he said.